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The keys to building wealth, whether you rent or buy
The keys to building wealth, whether you rent or buy Jun 14, 2024 4:07:01 PM There's more than one path to prosperity. To rent or to buy. At some point in your life, adulting may very well boil down to this one anxiety-inducing question. But it’s really two questions wrapped in one. The first is highly-personal: “Which lifestyle is right for me, right now?” And that answer is totally up to you. It’s largely based on individual circumstance, personal preference, and how much time you can handle at The Home Depot. But the second question? It deals with dollars and cents, and it’s right up our alley. So we’re here to offer you a sigh of relief, then help you turn hypotheticals into concrete action. Is renting or buying your primary residence the smarter money move? We’re in the business of building long-term wealth, and on that topic the historical data is pretty clear: both renting and owning a home can generate large sums of wealth in the long run. In the case of homeownership, that’s assuming you live there long enough to build equity and recoup the big, additional expenses that come with purchasing and maintaining it. And with renting, that’s assuming you invest wisely the extra money you would’ve otherwise spent buying and maintaining the home. A real estate investment firm recently crunched 50 years of data (see pages 3-5 for all of their assumptions) to see exactly how each hypothetical scenario fared. Wealth after 30 years *Data shown is for illustrative purposes only, and is not reflective of any Betterment portfolio or performance. As such, this graph does not reflect any of Betterment’s management fees, transaction costs or fund expenses. Renting slightly edges out buying in this study, although a buyer with a paid-off home could arguably close the gap in subsequent years if they invest their old mortgage payments. But these nitpicks miss the point, because in terms of wealth, both people are doing just fine in this hypothetical. So let’s all take a moment to exhale, because you can do well no matter which path you take. In the case of renting, it just requires you to actually invest those savings and not spend them. And we can help with that. How to realize the potential of “renting + investing” Let’s use the median house in America as an example. It costs roughly $415,000. Here’s a rough approximation of how much money you would need, both up front and ongoing, to buy and maintain it. Keep in mind the ongoing costs listed below exclude the mortgage payment itself. Up-front expenses Amount Downpayment (20%) $83,000 Closing costs (2%) $8,300 Agent commission* (3%) $12,450 Total $103,750 Ongoing expenses Property tax** $484 Homeowners insurance $179 Maintenance $534 Total $1,197/month Pay attention to your emotions here, because they can help guide your decision making. If you can’t imagine saving and investing this much money right now, then you may struggle to afford owning the median U.S. home. And that’s okay! One's answer to the Rent vs Buy question may very well change multiple times throughout life. Just remember you can still build wealth while renting. Crunch the numbers above based on your own budget, then follow two steps to see the strategy through to the end: Start saving for those upfront costs now. Once you have that amount in hand, start investing the equivalent of those monthly non-mortgage costs via recurring deposit. Now it’s no longer a hypothetical. You’re putting those savings to work. Should you decide to buy down the road, you’ll be more financially ready—and the tradeoff will be clear as day: Buy a house. Or keep saving at your current levels. There’s no wrong answer here. Whatever you decide will be the right decision for you. And it’ll be an informed one. -
Make Your Money Hustle: Bond Investing
Make Your Money Hustle: Bond Investing May 9, 2024 3:42:01 PM Bonds can be confusing, but we’re here to simplify them. Here’s the TL;DR: Bonds are loans you give to companies or governments who pay you back with interest. Bonds generally earn more return than high-yield savings accounts while taking on less risk than stocks. Bonds can be bought through several sources, including a broker, the U.S. government, or a diversified ETF like the BlackRock Target Income portfolio offered by Betterment. Congrats—you made it past the TL;DR. Next, we’ll dive deeper into how bonds may be able to bring balance to your investments, filling the gap between cash and stocks. In just a few minutes you’ll walk away knowing: The basics of bonds The benefits of investing in bonds An easy way to buy bonds As interest rates plateau—and eventually begin to drop—bonds may be a good way to earn extra yield in 2024. The basics of bonds No need to read a book about bonds—here are three Q&As that give you the basics. Question 1: What is a bond? Answer: A bond is basically a loan that you provide to an entity such as a business or government that wants to raise money. You can buy and hold a bond directly from the issuer (e.g. buying US Treasury bonds from TreasuryDirect) or choose to buy and sell bonds on the secondary market (e.g. an online broker). Question 2: How does a bond work? Answer: After you “loan” your money to the entity issuing the bond, they agree to: Pay back your principal: The issuer promises to pay your initial money back, aka your principal, by a specified date called the bond’s maturity. Pay you interest: You’ll receive periodic interest payments based on the annual interest rate paid on a bond, called the coupon rate. These interest payments are either distributed to you or reinvested into your investment on a consistent schedule. Question 3: Are there risks to bond investing? Answer: Generally, bonds are less risky than stocks, but that doesn't mean they are without risk. Examples of these risks include: Credit risk: There’s a chance that a bond issuer won’t pay you back. Interest rate risk: There is a chance that the value of the bond will go down as interest rates go up. Long-term bonds have greater interest rate risk than short-term bonds. Most bonds are rated based on the bond issuer's financial strength and ability to pay a bond's principal and interest. Like stock investments, bonds with less risk offer less potential for return (aka lower yields). Less risky bonds include higher-quality bonds (more likely to be paid on time) or bonds with shorter maturities (length until full repayment). The benefits of investing in bonds For investors looking to put some of their cash to work but not wanting to go all-in on the stock market, here are three benefits that bonds can offer, making them complementary to cash and stock. 1) Bonds can help you avoid market volatility Unlike stocks, bonds don’t represent a share of ownership in a company. Because of this, you won’t see the value of a bond increase as much as a stock when a company grows, but you generally also won’t see it decrease as much as a stock when a company struggles. 2) Bonds can help you preserve wealth Bonds, especially short-maturity bonds, can be a good choice to help preserve your money while potentially earning more return than cash in a traditional savings account, money market account, or CD. 3) Bonds can help you generate income Because the entity issuing a bond typically pays the bondholder interest on some regular schedule, they can help generate consistent income with less risk than stock investing. An easy way to buy bonds Most bonds don't trade directly on centralized markets like stocks, making it more challenging to invest in individual bonds. You can buy individual bonds from a broker or directly from the US government, but both of those options require DIY knowledge and time to build a diversified portfolio. An easy way to invest in a diversified portfolio of bonds is to invest in a bond ETF. A bond ETF, or exchange-traded fund, trades on stock exchanges, like a stock ETF. In one purchase, a bond ETF offers investors a way to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds, which can include government, municipal, corporate, and international bonds. Bond ETFs aim to provide regular income through interest payments from the underlying bonds and offer the flexibility of buying and selling shares on an exchange throughout the trading day. The BlackRock Target Income portfolio offered by Betterment The BlackRock Target Income portfolio offered by Betterment is an all-bond investing strategy that can generate up to 6.46% in yield with less risk than equity investing. The portfolio is designed to help you avoid market volatility, preserve wealth, and generate income, with all dividends automatically reinvested to grow over time. There are four options, each consisting of 100% bonds, targeting increasingly higher yields, and should be selected based on your risk tolerance. The portfolio is built by BlackRock, one of the world’s leading fund managers, offering some of the best options for balancing risk and return. The BlackRock Target Income portfolio includes access to bond asset classes such as US High-Quality Bonds, US Short-Term Treasury Bonds, US Mortgage-Backed Bonds, High-Yield Bonds, Floating-Rate Bonds, and others. We make it simple to invest funds into your BlackRock Target Income portfolio, with three options: Make a one-time deposit. Set up recurring deposits from Betterment Checking or an external account. Schedule recurring transfers from your Betterment Cash Reserve account. Ready? Start investing in the BlackRock Target Income portfolio today. -
When will interest rates finally start to fall?
When will interest rates finally start to fall? May 8, 2024 11:40:52 AM We look back at the last 40 years of interest rate peaks and plateaus for a guide. This decade of investing has come to be defined by one thing: interest rates. The federal funds rate has sat north of 5% for more than a year now, a level neither seen nor sustained since the runup to the Great Recession. Which has everyone from bond traders to homebuyers asking the same question: When will rates finally start to fall? Optimism that the Federal Reserve would cut rates throughout 2024 was widespread to begin the year, but inflation’s small uptick to start the year has thrown cold water on those expectations. So how far in the future could the first cut be? No one knows the exact answer, but history offers several reference points. Rate peaks are common, plateaus less so When you take a look at the past 40 years, the cyclical nature of short-term rates stands out: The economy heats up, the Fed raises rates. The economy cools down, the Fed lowers rates. Rinse and repeat. Historically-speaking, however, it’s usually only a matter of months until rates drop after peaking, which means our current cycle is starting to look more like a plateau by comparison. It’s already lasted longer than all but one other cycle since the 1980s. Rate peaks have lasted 8 months on average since the late 80s This holding pattern isn’t without reason, of course. Inflation has slowed considerably since 2022, but it’s been stuck in its own holding pattern as of late, hovering more than a full percentage point over the Fed’s stated target of 2%. On the flip side, supply and demand appear better balanced, so if inflation resumes its slowdown in the coming months, then signs point to possible rate cuts late in the year. So what’s a saver to do? Consider deploying excess dollars Whenever the federal funds rate falls, other interest rates follow, including variable interest rates on high-yield cash accounts. Stocks and bonds, on the other hand, tend to benefit from rate cuts. Because of this, we suggest taking another look at your cash situation. If you’ve been stockpiling cash above and beyond an emergency fund and other major purchases, it may be the time to start investing some of that excess in the coming months. Feeling anxious about diving into the market right now? Our all-bonds BlackRock Target Income portfolio offers the potential for higher yields than cash in exchange for taking on some risk. If or when a long-term goal comes to mind for those funds, consider switching to a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. And keep in mind you don’t have to move all your money at once. With a few clicks, you can set up a recurring internal transfer to slowly but steadily dollar-cost average your way from cash to investing. -
How to plant the seeds for a smoother tax season
How to plant the seeds for a smoother tax season Apr 29, 2024 10:46:32 AM Whether you overpaid or underpaid, taking a few actions now can make next year’s taxes less of a headache. Rejoice! Another Tax Day has come and gone. But don’t go shredding your receipts in celebration just yet. Now’s a good time to reflect and plant the seeds for a smoother tax season next year. Because whether you overpaid and received a refund (roughly two-thirds of Americans do) or underpaid and had to cut a painful check, you can take a few actions now that have the potential to pay off down the road. For the purpose of this article, we’ll divvy up these tips into three buckets: A tip for over-payers: Ignore the internet A tip for under-payers: Dial in your withholding A tip for all taxpayers: Save more to save more in taxes A tip for over-payers: Ignore the internet The internet commentariat will snidely tell you that getting a tax refund is like giving the government an interest-free loan. The implication being, you should stop doing it. And of course, if your tax refund is pushing five figures, maybe you’d be better off putting some of that cash in your pocket (or the market) earlier in the year. But the average tax refund typically falls in the ballpark of $3,000-$4,000. And we’ll be the first to tell you that in many cases, there’s little wrong with overpaying by that amount. Cash windfalls such as these can supercharge your savings goals. There’s also an emotional benefit to “found” money. Even if that money was yours all along. And the alternative of underpaying can sometimes have pricey consequences. A tip for under-payers: Dial in your withholding Most salaried workers have income taxes withheld from their paychecks throughout the year. Case closed, right? Not always. Come tax time, some realize they still owe a substantial amount of taxes, so much so that the IRS slaps them with an underpayment penalty on top of their already nausea-inducing tax bill. It happens more than you think. The IRS dished out more than $1.8 billion of these underpayment penalties to about 12 million people in 2022 alone. If you’re one of these unfortunate souls, you have our sympathies. Now here’s our two-step tip: Step 1: Increase the amount of income tax withheld from your paycheck by completing a fresh W-4 form and submitting it to your employer. Step 2: As a backup plan, consider opening a new Cash Reserve account and setting up recurring deposits—just in case your withholding estimate was off and you still owe taxes next year. How much cash should you set aside? One approach is to shoot for 10% of your total tax amount from this most recent return. You can find this amount on line 24 of your Form 1040. A tip for all taxpayers: Save more to save more on taxes One surefire way to make tax time less painful is to pay less taxes in the first place. Sure, you could accomplish this by moving to one of the nine states with no income tax, but have you seen those Zestimates® lately? We’ll go ahead and unheart that idea for you. By comparison, an easier way to lighten your tax load is by contributing more to a traditional IRA and/or traditional 401(k). Between those two accounts, eligible individuals can reduce their taxable income by up to $30,000 in 2024. For someone making $77,000, the point at which the IRS starts to phase out a traditional IRA’s tax benefits, that could mean more than $5,000 in federal tax savings. And it all comes with the sweet, sweet side effect of saving more for retirement. -
The Betterment Core portfolio strategy
The Betterment Core portfolio strategy Mar 25, 2024 10:00:00 AM We continually improve our portfolio construction methodology over time in line with our research-focused investment philosophy. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Global Diversification and Asset Allocation Portfolio Optimization Tax Management Using Municipal Bonds The Value Tilt Portfolio Strategy Innovative Technology Portfolio Strategy Conclusion Citations I. Introduction Betterment builds investment portfolios designed to help you make the most of your money so you can live the life you want. Our investment philosophy forms the basis for how we pursue that objective: Betterment uses real-world evidence and systematic decision-making to help increase our customers’ wealth. In building our platform and offering individualized advice, Betterment’s philosophy is actualized by our five investing principles. Regardless of one’s assets or specific situation, Betterment believes all investors should: Make a personalized plan. Build in discipline. Maintain diversification. Balance cost and value. Manage taxes. To align with Betterment’s investing principles, a portfolio strategy must enable personalized planning and built-in discipline for investors. The Betterment Core portfolio strategy contains 101 individualized risk levels (each with a different percentage of the portfolio invested in stocks vs. bonds, informed by your financial goals, time horizon and risk tolerance), in part, because that level of granularity in allocation management provides the flexibility to align to multiple goals with different timelines and circumstances. In this guide to the Betterment Core portfolio strategy construction process, our goal is to demonstrate how the methodology, in both its application and development, embodies Betterment’s investing principles. When developing a portfolio strategy, any investment manager faces two main tasks: asset class selection and portfolio optimization. Fund selection is also guided by our investing principles, and is covered separately in our Investment Selection Methodology paper. II. Global Diversification and Asset Allocation An optimal asset allocation is one that lies on the efficient frontier, which is a set of portfolios that seek to achieve the maximum objective for any given feasible level of risk. The objective of most long-term portfolio strategies is to maximize return for a given level of risk, which is measured in terms of volatility—the dispersion of those returns. In line with our investment philosophy of making systematic decisions backed by research, Betterment’s asset allocation is based on a theory by economist Harry Markowitz called Modern Portfolio Theory.1 A major tenet of Modern Portfolio Theory is that any asset included in a portfolio should not be assessed by itself, but rather, its potential risk and return should be analyzed as a contribution to the whole portfolio. Modern Portfolio Theory seeks to maximize expected return given an expected risk level or, equivalently, minimize expected risk given an expected return. Other forms of portfolio construction may legitimately pursue other objectives, such as optimizing for income, or minimizing loss of principal. Asset Classes Selected for Betterment’s Core Portfolio Strategy The Betterment Core portfolio strategy’s asset allocation starts with a universe of investable assets, which for us could be thought of as the “global market portfolio.”2 To capture the exposures of the asset classes for the global market portfolio, Betterment evaluates available exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that represent each class in the theoretical market portfolio. We base our asset class selection on ETFs because this aligns portfolio construction with our investment selection methodology. Betterment’s portfolios are constructed of the following asset classes: Equities U.S. equities International developed market equities Emerging market equities Bonds U.S. short-term treasury bonds U.S. inflation-protected bonds U.S. investment-grade bonds U.S. municipal bonds International developed market bonds Emerging market bonds We select U.S. and international developed market equities as a core part of the portfolio. Historically, equities exhibit a high degree of volatility, but provide some degree of inflation protection. Even though significant historical drawdowns, such as the global financial crisis in 2008 and pandemic outbreak in 2020, demonstrate the possible risk of investing in equities, longer-term historical data and our forward expected returns calculations suggest that developed market equities remain a core part of any asset allocation aimed at achieving positive returns. This is because, over the long term, developed market equities have tended to outperform bonds on a risk-adjusted basis. To achieve a global market portfolio, we also include equities from less developed economies, called emerging markets. Generally, emerging market equities tend to be more volatile than U.S. and international developed equities. And while our research shows high correlation between this asset class and developed market equities, their inclusion on a risk-adjusted basis is important for global diversification. Note that Betterment excludes frontier markets, which are even smaller than emerging markets, due to their widely varying definition, extreme volatility, small contribution to global market capitalization, and cost to access. The Betterment Core portfolio strategy incorporates bond exposure because, historically, bonds have a low correlation with equities, and they remain an important way to dial down the overall risk of a portfolio. To promote diversification and leverage various risk and reward tradeoffs, the Betterment Core portfolio strategy includes exposure to several asset classes of bonds. Asset Classes Excluded from the Betterment Core Portfolio Strategy While Modern Portfolio Theory would have us craft a portfolio to represent the total market, including all available asset classes, we exclude some asset classes whose cost and/or lack of data outweighs the potential benefit gained from their inclusion. The Betterment Core portfolio construction process excludes commodities and natural resources asset classes. Specifically, while commodities represent an investable asset class in the global financial market, we have excluded commodities ETFs because of their low contribution to a global stock/bond portfolio's risk-adjusted return. In addition, real estate investment trusts (REITs), which tend to be well marketed as a separate asset class, are not explicitly included in the Core portfolio strategy. Betterment does provide exposure to real estate, but as a sector within equities. Adding additional real estate exposure by including a REIT asset class would overweight the exposure to real estate relative to the overall market. Incorporating awareness of a benchmark Before 2024, we managed the Core portfolio strategy in a “benchmark agnostic” manner, meaning we did not incorporate consideration of global stock and bond indices in our portfolio optimization, though we have always sought to optimize the expected risk-adjusted return of the portfolios we construct for clients. The “risk” element of this statement represents volatility and the related drawdown potential of the portfolio, but it could also represent the risk in the deviation of the portfolio’s performance relative to a benchmark. In an evolution of our investment process, in 2024 we updated our portfolio construction methodology to become “benchmark aware,” as we now calibrate our exposures based on a custom benchmark that expresses our preference for diversifying across global stocks and bonds. A benchmark, which comes in the form of a broad-based market index or a combination of indices, serves as a reference point when approaching asset allocation, understanding investment performance, and aligning the expectations of portfolio managers and clients. In our case, we created a custom benchmark that most closely aligns with our future expectations for global markets. The custom benchmark we have selected is composed of (1) the MSCI All Country World stock index (MSCI ACWI), (2) the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond index, and (3) at low risk levels, the ICE US Treasury 1-3 Year Index. Our custom benchmark is composed of 101 risk levels of varying percentage weightings of the stock and bond indexes, which correspond to the 101 risk level allocations in our Core portfolio. At low risk levels (allocations that are less than 40% stocks), we layer an allocation to the ICE US Treasury 1-3 Year index, which represents short-term bonds, into the blended benchmark. We believe that incorporating this custom benchmark into our process reinforces the discipline of carefully evaluating the ways in which our portfolios’ performance could veer from global market indices and deviate from our clients’ expectations. We have customized the benchmark with 101 risk levels so that it serves clients’ varying investment goals and risk tolerances. As we will explore in the following section, establishing a benchmark allows us to apply constraints to our portfolio optimization that ensures the portfolio strategy’s asset allocation does not vary significantly from the geographic and market-capitalization size exposures of a sound benchmark. Our benchmark selection also makes explicit that the portfolio strategy delivers global diversification rather than the more narrowly concentrated and home-biased exposures of other possible benchmarks such as the S&P 500. III. Portfolio Optimization As an asset manager, we fine-tune the investments our clients hold with us, seeking to maximize return potential for the appropriate amount of risk each client can tolerate. We base this effort on a foundation of established techniques in the industry and our own rigorous research and analysis. While most asset managers offer a limited set of model portfolios at a defined risk scale, the Betterment Core portfolio strategy is designed to give customers more granularity and control over how much risk they want to take on. Instead of offering a conventional set of three portfolio choices—aggressive, moderate, and conservative—our portfolio optimization methods enable the Core portfolio strategy to contain 101 different risk levels. Optimizing Portfolios Modern Portfolio Theory requires estimating variables such as expected-returns, covariances, and volatilities to optimize for portfolios that sit along an efficient frontier. We refer to these variables as capital market assumptions (CMAs), and they provide quantitative inputs for our process to derive favorable asset class weights for the portfolio strategy. While we could use historical averages to estimate future returns, this is inherently unreliable because historical returns do not necessarily represent future expectations. A better way is to utilize the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) along with a utility function which allows us to optimize for the portfolio with a higher return for the risk that the investor is willing to accept. Computing Forward-Looking Return Inputs Under CAPM assumptions, the global market portfolio is the optimal portfolio. Since we know the weights of the global market portfolio and can reasonably estimate the covariance of those assets, we can recover the returns implied by the market.3 This relationship gives rise to the equation for reverse optimization: μ = λ Σ ωmarket Where μ is the return vector, λ is the risk aversion parameter, Σ is the covariance matrix, and ωmarket is the weights of the assets in the global market portfolio.5 By using CAPM, the expected return is essentially determined to be proportional to the asset’s contribution to the overall portfolio risk. It’s called a reverse optimization because the weights are taken as a given and this implies the returns that investors are expecting. While CAPM is an elegant theory, it does rely on a number of limiting assumptions: e.g., a one period model, a frictionless and efficient market, and the assumption that all investors are rational mean-variance optimizers.4 In order to complete the equation above and compute the expected returns using reverse optimization, we need the covariance matrix as an input. This matrix mathematically describes the relationships of every asset with each other as well as the volatility risk of the assets themselves. In another more recent evolution of our investment process, we also attempt to increase the robustness of our CMAs by averaging in the estimates of expected returns and volatilities published by large asset managers such as BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street Global Advisors. We weight the contribution of their figures to our final estimates based on our judgment of the external provider’s methodology. Constrained optimization for stock-heavy portfolios After formulating our CMAs for each of the asset classes we favor for inclusion in the Betterment Core portfolio strategy, we then solve for target portfolio allocation weights (the specific set of asset classes and the relative distribution among those asset classes in which a portfolio will be invested), with the range of possible solutions constrained by limiting the deviation from the composition of the custom benchmark. To robustly estimate the weights that best balance risk and return, we first generate several thousand random samples of 15 years of expected returns for the selected asset classes based on our latest CMAs, assuming a multivariate normal distribution. For each sample of 15 years of simulated expected return data, we find a set of allocation weights subject to constraints that provide the best risk-return trade-off, expressed as the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, i.e., the ratio of its return to its volatility. Averaging the allocation weights across the thousands of return samples gives a single set of allocation weights optimized to perform in the face of a wide range of market scenarios (a “target allocation”). The constraints are imposed to make the portfolio weights more benchmark-aware by setting maximum and minimum limits to some asset class weights. These constraints reflect our judgment of how far the composition of geographic regions within the portfolio’s stock and bond allocations should differ from the breakdown of the indices used in the benchmark before the risk of significantly varied performance between the portfolio strategy and the benchmark becomes untenable. For example, the share of the portfolio’s stock allocation assigned to international developed stocks should not be profoundly different from the share of international developed stocks within the MSCI ACWI. We implement caps on the weights of emerging market stocks and bonds, which are often projected to have high returns in our CMAs, and set minimum thresholds for U.S. stocks and bonds. This approach not only ensures our portfolio aligns more closely with the benchmark, but it also mitigates the risk of disproportionately allocating to certain high expected return asset classes. Constrained optimization for bond-heavy portfolios For versions of the Core portfolio strategy that have more than or equal to 60% allocation to bonds, the optimization approach differs in that expected returns are maximized for target volatilities assigned to each risk level. These volatility targets are determined by considering the volatility of the equivalent benchmark. Manually established constraints are designed to manage risk relative to the benchmark, instituting a declining trend in emerging market stock and bond exposures as stock allocations (i.e., the risk level) decreases. Meaning that investors with more conservative risk tolerances have reduced exposures to emerging market stocks and bonds because emerging markets tend to have more volatility and downside-risk relative to more established markets. Additionally, as the stock allocation percentage decreases, we taper the share of international and U.S. aggregate bonds within the overall bond allocation, and increase the share of short-term Treasury, short-term investment grade, and inflation-protected bonds. This reflects our view that investors with more conservative risk tolerances should have increased exposure to short-term Treasury, short-term investment grade, and inflation-protected bonds relative to riskier areas of fixed income. The lower available risk levels of the Core portfolio strategy demonstrate capital preservation objectives, as the shorter-term fixed income exposures likely possess less credit and duration risk. Clients invested in the Core portfolio at conservative allocation levels will likely therefore not experience as significant drawdowns in the event of waves of defaults or upward swings in interest rates. Inflation-protected securities also help buffer the lower risk levels from upward drafts in inflation. IV. Tax Management Using Municipal Bonds For investors with taxable accounts, portfolio returns may be further improved on an after-tax basis by utilizing municipal bonds. This is because the interest from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax. To take advantage of this, the Betterment Core portfolio strategy in taxable accounts is also tilted toward municipal bonds because interest from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax, which can further optimize portfolio returns. Other types of bonds remain for diversification reasons, but the overall bond tax profile is improved by tilting towards municipal bonds. For investors in states with some of the highest tax rates—New York and California—Betterment can optionally replace the municipal bond allocation with a more narrow set of bonds for that specific state, further saving the investor on state taxes. Betterment customers who live in NY or CA can contact customer support to take advantage of state specific municipal bonds. V. The Value Tilt Portfolio Strategy Existing Betterment customers may recall that historically the Core portfolio strategy held a tilt to value companies, or businesses that appear to be potentially undervalued based on metrics such as price to earnings ratios. The latest iteration of the Core portfolio strategy, however, has deprecated this explicit tilt that was expressed via large-, mid-, and small-capitalization U.S. value stock ETFs, while maintaining some exposure to value companies through broad market U.S. stock funds. We no longer favor allocating to value stock ETFs within the Core portfolio strategy in large part as a result of our adoption of a broad market benchmark, which highlights the idiosyncratic nature of such tilts, sometimes referred to as “off benchmark bets.” We believe our chosen benchmark that represents stocks through the MSCI ACWI, which holds a more neutral weighting to value stocks, more closely aligns with the risk and return expectations of Betterment’s diverse range of client types across individuals, financial advisors, and 401(k) plan sponsors. Additionally, as markets have grown more efficient and value factor investing more popularized, potentially compressing the value premium, we have a marginally less favorable view of the forward-looking, risk-adjusted return profile of the exposure. That being said, we have not entirely lost conviction in the research supporting the prudence of value investing. The value factor’s deep academic roots drove decisions to incorporate the value tilt into Betterment’s portfolios from the company’s earliest days. For investors who wish to remain invested in a value strategy, we have added the Value Tilt portfolio strategy, a separate option from the Core portfolio strategy to our investing offering. The Value Tilt portfolio strategy maintains the Core portfolio strategy’s global diversification across stocks and bonds while including a sleeve within the stock allocation of large-, mid-, and small-capitalization U.S. value funds. We calibrated the size of the value fund exposure based on a certain target historical tracking error to the backtested performance of the latest version of the Core portfolio strategy. Based on this approach, investors should expect the Value Tilt portfolio strategy to generally perform similarly to Core, with the potential to under- or outperform based on the return of U.S. value stocks. With the option to select between the Value Tilt portfolio strategy or a Core now without an explicit allocation to value, the investment flexibility of the Betterment platform has improved. VI. Innovative Technology Portfolio Strategy In 2021, Betterment launched the Innovative Technology portfolio strategy to provide access to the thematic trend of technological innovation. The premise of investing in this theme is that your investments incorporate exposure to the companies that are seeking to shape the next industrial revolution. Similar to the Value Tilt portfolio, the Core portfolio strategy is used as the foundation of construction for the Innovative Technology portfolio. With this portfolio strategy, we calibrated the size of the innovative technology fund exposure based on a certain target historical tracking error to the backtested performance of the latest version of the Core portfolio strategy. Through this process, the Innovative Technology portfolio maintains the same globally diversified, low-cost approach that is found in Betterment’s investment philosophy. The portfolio however has increased exposure to risk given that innovation requires a long-term view, and may face uncertainties along the way. It may outperform or underperform depending on the return experience of the innovative technology fund exposure and the thematic landscape. VII. Conclusion After setting the strategic weight of assets in the Betterment Core portfolio strategy, the next step in implementing the portfolio construction process is Betterment’s investment selection, which selects the appropriate ETFs for the respective asset exposure in a generally low-cost, tax-efficient way. In keeping with our philosophy, that process, like the portfolio construction process, is executed in a systematic, rules-based way, taking into account the cost of the fund and the liquidity of the fund. Beyond ticker selection is our established process for allocation management—how we advise downgrading risk over time—and our methodology for automatic asset location, which we call Tax Coordination. Finally, our overlay features of automated rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting are designed to be used to help further maximize individualized, after-tax returns. Together these processes put our principles into action, to help each and every Betterment customer maximize value while invested at Betterment and when they take their money home. VIII. Citations 1 Markowitz, H., "Portfolio Selection".The Journal of Finance, Vol. 7, No. 1. (Mar., 1952), pp. 77-91. 2 Black F. and Litterman R., Asset Allocation Combining Investor Views with Market Equilibrium, Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 1, No. 2. (Sep., 1991), pp. 7-18. Black F. and Litterman R., Global Portfolio Optimization, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 48, No. 5 (Sep. - Oct., 1992), pp. 28-43. 3 Litterman, B. (2004) Modern Investment Management: An Equilibrium Approach. 4 Note that the risk aversion parameter is essentially a free parameter. 5 Ilmnen, A., Expected Returns. -
Meet the Innovative Technology Portfolio
Meet the Innovative Technology Portfolio Mar 25, 2024 8:00:00 AM If you believe in the power of tech to blaze new trails, you can now tailor your investing to track the companies leading the way. The most valuable companies of today aren’t the same bunch as 20 years ago. With each generation comes new challengers and new categories (Hello, Big Tech). And while we can’t really predict the next class of top performers, innovation will likely come from parts of the economy that use technology in new and exciting applications, industries like: semiconductors clean energy virtual reality artificial intelligence nanotechnology This dynamic led us to create the Innovative Technology portfolio. What is the Innovative Technology Portfolio? The portfolio increases your exposure to companies pioneering the technology mentioned above and more. These innovations carry the potential to reshape the way we work and play, and in the process shape the market’s next generation of high-performing companies. Using the Core portfolio as its foundation, the Innovative Technology portfolio is built to generate long-term returns with a diversified, low-cost approach, but with increased exposure to risk. It contains many of the same investments as Core, but also includes an allocation to the SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF (Ticker: KOMP). For a more in-depth look at the portfolio’s methodology, skip over to its disclosure. How are pioneering companies selected? The Kensho index that KOMP tracks uses a special branch of artificial intelligence called Natural Language Processing to screen regulatory data and identify companies helping drive the Fourth Industrial Revolution. After picking companies across more than 20 categories, each is combined into the overall index and weighted according to their risk and return profiles. Why might you choose this portfolio over Betterment’s Core portfolio? We built the Innovative Technology portfolio to perform more or less the same as an equivalent stock/bond allocation of the Core portfolio. It may, however, outperform or underperform depending on the return experience of KOMP and the companies this fund tracks. So, if you believe the emerging tech of today will drive the returns of tomorrow—and are willing to take on some additional risk to take that long-term view— this is a portfolio made with you in mind. Risk and early adoption can tend to go hand-in-hand, after all. Why invest in innovation with Betterment? Innovative technology is in our DNA. We may be the largest independent digital financial advisor now, but the “robo advisor” category barely existed when we opened shop in 2008. If you choose to invest in the Innovative Technology portfolio with Betterment, you not only get our professional, tech- forward, portfolio management tools, you also get an investment manager with first-hand experience in the field of first movers.